Self-driving electric cars could mean the end of short-haul flights

Domestic and short-haul flights are one of the worst modes of transport for CO2 emissions. BBC research of BEIS / Defra in 2019 found that flights on distances of 700 km (438 miles) or less produce 29% more CO2 per person per kilometer or mile traveled than longer flights. But self-driving battery-electric vehicles could drastically reduce the need for this means of transport or even make it superfluous, thereby reducing emissions.

Short-haul flights are one of the most polluting forms of travel.

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The BBC study argued that a domestic flight would generate 254 g / km of CO2 per passenger compared to 195 g / km on the long haul. In contrast, even a diesel car emits an average of only 171 g / km. Plug in a family of four and that drops to 43 g / km. However, people still do not choose their means of transport so much based on their carbon footprint, even if that changes. The reason short haul flights are so popular is speed.

A flight from London to Edinburgh takes around 1.5 hours. Even if you allow for another 1.5 hours to check in, an hour to drive to the airport, and another hour to get to your destination, that adds up to just 5 hours. If you drive it yourself, it will take 7.5-8 hours if you are lucky and you will likely need to take a break halfway through. You would also be tired when you arrive so this would not be a good solution if you are planning to spend a day in meetings when you have reached your goal.

Emissions from different modes of transport, per passenger

Dr. James Morris

Of course, trains can be extremely low in carbon, but they’re generally slower than flying. To get back to this BBC report, domestic traffic costs 41 g / km per passenger and the Eurostar from London to Paris costs an incredible 6 g / km. But in the UK and other parts of the world, trains are an expensive means of transport – often more so than flying – and you still have the inconvenience of going to a station to catch a train. This probably won’t take as long as getting to an airport, but it can add a couple of hours to the trip. So the 4.5-hour train ride from London to Edinburgh can take roughly the same door-to-door time as a car trip and a few hours longer than flying.

Here, self-driving electric cars could dramatically change the balance. Theoretically, a BEV emits 0 g / km, but with exclusively renewable energy sources. Let’s say we stick with the UK and make this trip from London to Edinburgh but use the UK average network balance. Last year, the UK’s average electricity grid was 181g CO2 per kWh – the greenest year yet. Most BEVs can do at least 3 miles per kWh and some more than 4 miles per kWh. But let’s assume the worst and say 3. That makes 60 g CO2 per mile or 96 g / km. If you put four people in the car, it drops to 24 g / km per person – so much better than the British domestic railway.

The Mercedes EQS has a range of up to 481 miles and promises self-driving capabilities. (Photo of … [+] DANIEL ROLAND / AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

It is a little over 400 miles from London to Edinburgh, which exceeds almost all current electric vehicles. But a Mercedes EQS might do that with its 481 mile range, and you’d probably need a break at some point anyway. Assuming an expensive 40 pence ($ 0.55) per kWh for fast public charging, the trip would cost 53 pounds ($ 73) of electricity (but it will likely be a lot less). You can get flights from London to Edinburgh as cheaply as this, but most are at least twice as expensive and generally considerably more. Book a train well in advance and it will be cheaper, but otherwise it will also be more expensive. However, with four people in the car, the electric car fare would only be £ 13 ($ 18) per person, which no cheap train ticket can match.

Now consider driving yourself. You choose short haul flights because of speed and both flying and trains because you can do something different during the trip. A self-driving car would mean the same thing. You could work, watch a movie, read a book, eat, or even sleep in transit. Plus, you don’t have to drive to and from an airport or train station at either end – the car should be able to get you door-to-door. This would probably make up for the slightly longer travel time than flying, as you don’t have to hassle to get on and off a local transport vehicle or (in the case of an airplane) check in luggage and collect it at your destination. You will likely be a lot more relaxed when you arrive.

That’s all hypothetical, of course, because self-driving cars that can get you from your door in London to your hotel door in Edinburgh don’t yet exist. Some think they are many more years away than optimists like Elon Musk suggest. But when they arrive, self-driving electric cars will make a short-haul flight look polluting and expensive in comparison, while trains are expensive and less comfortable. It could well mean the end of short-haul flying as we know it.