October 30, 2021
“ALL IS ROTARY, beautifully perfect and wonderfully efficient, ”said one electric vehicle (EV) evangelist. “There is no almost frightening, unsafe throbbing and whirring of the powerful internal combustion engine … no dangerous and smelly gasoline and no noise. Perfect freedom from vibration guarantees both comfort and peace of mind. ”Translated into the Twitter Esse, such views from Elon Musk would not sound out of place. But its author was Thomas Edison, the lightbulb pioneer, 1903.
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Then as now, electric vehicles posed a competitive threat to gasoline-powered cars. In 1905, most commercial vehicles were electric vehicles. Ads aimed at wealthy women extolled the cleanliness, ease of use and the lack of exhaust fumes from electric vehicles.
However, by the 1920s, electric cars were a dying breed. The standard report on their demise is that drivers were put off by their limited range and higher cost compared to gasoline-powered cars. However, a new paper by Josef Taalbi and Hana Nielsen of Lund University argues that their main disadvantage was instead a lack of infrastructure.
The authors consider various causes for the triumphant advance of gasoline in the years 1900-10. The cost is unlikely since until 1910 gasoline-powered cars and electric vehicles of the same model type were similarly expensive. In terms of range, electric vehicles made a whopping 145 km in the 1910s. If this had been the main handicap of electric vehicles, battery changing stations, which replace empty batteries with charged ones in a matter of seconds, could have become just as common as gas stations.
To test other explanations, the authors analyzed the specifications and manufacturing facilities of 37,000 model year pairs of American cars in the years 1895-1942. Although gasoline-powered cars were the most common, their market share varied based on location. In places with the necessary infrastructure for electric vehicles – slick roads that reduced the crowd of heavy batteries and enough electricity – the production of electric vehicles was uncommon. In areas without this capacity, gasoline predominated. The infrastructure needs of these vehicles were largely met before they were invented, as many rural stores already stocked gasoline for agricultural implements.
The study then used a statistical model to predict how automotive history could have differed had the power grid developed faster. She notes that if the amount of electricity America produced by 1922 had been available in 1902, 71% of car models in 1920 would have been electric vehicles (although truckers would still have chosen gasoline cars). Given the additional power generation such a fleet would require, this would have cut carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles in America by 44% in 1920.
A century later, the number and speed of charging stations are still limiting the purchase of electric vehicles by motorists who are concerned about long journeys. However, the infrastructure gap is getting smaller. Tesla, whose shares are now worth $ 1 trillion, has set up 25,000 fast “superchargers” (though only Tesla drivers can use them). And a bipartisan bill recently passed by the US Senate provides $ 7.5 billion to increase loading capacity. As world leaders meet at the COP26 conference next week to negotiate reducing global carbon emissions, the study suggests that more support for EV infrastructure could have an oversized impact.■
Sources: “The Role of Energy Infrastructure in Shaping the Early Adoption of Electric and Gasoline Cars,” by J. Taalbi & H. Nielsen, Nature Energy, 2021; EPA; Library of Congress
This article appeared in the graphic detail section of the print edition under the heading “The grid is the thing”
