While the core task of power grids has long been to keep the lights running, today grid operators are faced with the challenge of keeping the wheels running as the decarbonization of traffic places greater demands on the power supply.
According to the International Energy Agency, the number of electric vehicles rose by more than 40 percent year-on-year to over 10 million worldwide. While that accounts for only 1 percent of the total number of vehicles, sales of electric cars are accelerating: the IEA suggests that the global fleet of electric vehicles could grow to 145 million by 2030 under the current policy to reduce CO2 emissions.
Experts agree that the path to achieving “net zero” targets will require widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles and redesigning the way clean energy is delivered to the transport fleet.
“Cars are [both] a threat and an opportunity for the grid and how to support the energy transition, ”says Graeme Cooper, director of decarbonisation of transport at the UK’s National Grid. “Until we get to net zero [in 2050], we need twice as much electrical energy as today, ”he says.
A study by the UK’s Climate Change Committee predicts that the increasing electrification of the country’s economy, including the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, could double annual demand from 300 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019 to 610 TWh in 2050.
David Joffe, head of the advisory board’s carbon budget, says while technological improvements lower the cost of electric vehicles, it is important to ensure “charging infrastructure is where it needs to be” to drive adoption.
According to the International Energy Agency, the number of electric vehicles rose 40 percent year-on-year to over 10 million in 2020 © Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
The price is decarbonising road transport, which remains the UK’s single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, ahead of electricity generation, heating of buildings and general industrial use, says Joffe.
The good news, Cooper said, is that the rapid growth of renewable energy sources – along with the early planning of power distribution upgrades and the introduction of digitized demand management systems for vehicle charging – should enable a green traffic revolution. And leave the lights on too.
“The grille has evolved – the grille is the cleanest ever,” he says. The key, however, will be to encourage vehicle charging when demand is low, to avoid spikes in demand that require the use of polluting hydrocarbon power plants.
Cooper believes that the development of smart meters and charging systems, combined with tariffs that encourage consumers to use energy in times of low demand, can help “bring the cleanest and cheapest electricity to cars and tumble dryers.” It can also prevent consumers from “using energy when the grid is loaded and generation is the dirtiest”.
Smart meters and time-controlled charging systems can smooth the demand in the power grids © Simon Dack / Alamy
Miguel Stilwell de Andrade, CEO of Portuguese energy company EDP, points to projections that electric vehicles will account for 2-3 percent of global electricity needs by 2030, although higher usage in Europe could reach levels of 5 percent on the continent. By 2040, the numbers could rise to 9 percent worldwide and 16 percent in Europe, says Stilwell de Andrade.
That growth could put a strain on the electricity system, he adds. “If not managed, EV charging could potentially more than double power consumption on certain local grids as EV usage increases, requiring significant investment in grids and utility capacity.”
However, he agrees that this increase in demand can be mitigated by intelligent fueling technology. “Fortunately, these technologies are becoming increasingly available and their adoption should accelerate in the years to come,” he says.
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Europe overtook China in electric vehicle sales in 2020, although China still has the largest fleet and has continued to invest in expanding its charging network, according to an IEA report.
In comparison, the U.S. remains a laggard in terms of sales and federal government support for the adoption of electric vehicles. But companies and policy makers are waiting for pledges from the new White House administration to encourage a move away from internal combustion engines.
Automakers, local utilities and individual states are also taking the lead in promoting well-to-wheel emissions reductions as new US President Joe Biden plans to resume the Paris Agreement.
In September, California announced that it would unilaterally ban the sale of new fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035, while Massachusetts pledged to follow suit.
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Matthew Cloud, who is developing National Grid’s EV strategy in its US territories, says it is necessary to “proactively install infrastructure and integrate renewable energy capacity into local grids” to encourage and ensure the uptake of electric vehicles that state political goals are achieved.
More charging points, as well as time-of-use tariffs and smart charging systems will be crucial to ensure that the grids don’t slow down the adoption of electric vehicles, he adds. “More has to be invested – the question is to what extent.”
