Worldwide registrations of plug-in vehicles increased by 114% in August 2021 compared to August 2020 and reached 516,000 units (or 7.7% share of the total car market). That made it the third best month in the plugin market ever, and September is expected to be another record month.
Fully electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 71% of plug-in registrations in August, slightly more than in the previous year (67%). In total there were around 365,000 BEV registrations or 5.4% share of the entire automotive market.
With YTD numbers now over 3.5 million units (and a record 6.6% share) and knowing that the last few months of the year have traditionally seen strong sales, we should see the market for plug-in Vehicles (PEV) slightly exceeding 6 million units. Year, with the 7 million mark now an opportunity to be achieved!
For comparison: 2020 ended with 3.1 million registered units. Not bad considering the current chip shortage, right?
While Europe and China are already experiencing disruptions, we shouldn’t see consistent levels of disruption globally until next year, which is getting a boost from the U.S. market when it goes at warp speed due to new incentives and the start of ramp-up several electric pickup trucks.
However, December should be the first month with double digits on a global scale (and the first with a million units?) As all 3 major markets (China, Europe and USA) will have record months.
The future will depend heavily on the development of the COVID pandemic, economic recovery and the shortage of chips (and batteries), but whatever happens, expect plugins to keep increasing their market share as many older OEMs now have their plugin -Offers through their plugins prioritize fossil fuel models because they know they must now have a foot in the door of the fast growing plugin market to ensure survival in a future BEV-based automotive market.
In the model ranking it should be noted that the Wuling Mini EV won the Best Seller Award for the second time in a row, the first time that the small 4-seater repeated a monthly # 1 ranking. This was thanks to a record number of 41,188 registrations. It also received its first best-seller title in the entire Chinese auto market, the icing on the cake.
The # 2 Tesla Model Y beat the # 3 Model 3 by more than 5,000 units, with the sedan seeing its second straight drop in deliveries in August year over year.
Off the podium, the Volkswagen ID.4 was beaten by the fast-paced BYD Qin Plus PHEV, which got a record of 13,043 registrations, and with the BEV version of the Chinese mid-range model that was also on the rise (it was # 10 with a record of 7,633 units), both versions totaled an astonishing 20,676 registrations. One wonders where and when the delivery ramp-up will end. Will the BYD midsizer be the first to go head to head with the Model 3?
Elsewhere, several Chinese models are mentioned who have achieved record highs – there were 12 Chinese models in the top 20 in August, 7 of them with record highs. In addition to the aforementioned Wuling Mini EV, BYD Qin Plus PHEV and BYD Qin Plus BEV, the # 6 Li Xiang One, # 7 SAIC Clever EV, # 8 BYD Song Pro PHEV and # 15 XPeng P7 all achieved record values.
The highlight in the traditional OEM warehouse was the # 9 Volkswagen ID.3, which achieved its best result in 2021 with 8,025 registrations, while the latest # 17 Ford Mustang Mach-E and # 18 Hyundai Ioniq 5 continued to shine. The # 13 Jeep Wrangler PHEV continues to impress and was the only PHEV from a legacy OEM to make it into this top 20 making the Wrangler a breeze.
Outside of the top 20, we should mention some Chinese EVs that are either ramping up production, like the Neta V from Hozon (4,611 units) or the Leap Motor T03 (4,409), or are recovering their mojo, like the BYD Yuan EV (4,784 units ). Expect to see her in the top 20 soon.
In the YTD table, the climber of the month was BYD Qin Plus PHEV, which jumped 8 places to 9th place, with the BYD midsizer soon to be 5th next to the full-size yacht SUV Li Xiang One.
There are several success stories of the current moment in the Chinese EV industry, from the unexpected success of the Wuling Mini EV to the recent battery-based surge of BYD, but for me the most striking story is Li Auto, the maker of the Li Xiang One. Everything was there to not do well: it wasn’t a media-friendly EV startup (and we all know how much branding is important there), its only model was an expensive and large SUV, and Chinese brands were known around the world Fighting upper ends of the market, and to make things worse, it used technology (EREV) that others had already given up (GM, BMW) and that was considered obsolete.
And yet, here we are, the Li Xiang is well on its way to becoming the best-selling full-size model in the plugin market * and will be the model to beat next year. So a message to Tesla, Lucid, Mercedes, Audi, BMW: This little-known Chinese model is the category queen. You have to beat it if you want to get gold in the full-size category.
- However, if we add up the BEV and PHEV versions of the BYD Han, the large sedan would still be the bestseller in the full-size category. And what do you know, the two top runners-up in the PEV game are Chinese.
Elsewhere, Great Wall’s ORA Black Cat climbed to # 10 thanks to a decent performance in August, while another small Chinese EV, SAIC’s Roewe Clever EV, moved to # 18, highlighting the current popularity of urban EVs in China (” You’re welcome, ”says Wuling).
Speaking of new faces: Ford’s new BEV baby, the Mustang Mach-E, made it into the table in 20th place, which resulted in two Fords in the top 20. The American brand became the fourth automaker to have more than one model in the top 20, the others being Tesla (Model Y and Model 3), Volkswagen (ID.3 and ID.4) and BYD (Han EV and Qin Plus PHEV ). Not bad company.
Outside of the top 20, we should mention the ascending XPeng P7, which is around 1,000 units below the top 20 and should soon get into the table, which would make it 10 (!) Chinese models in the YTD top 20.
BYD wins (again) the manufacturer competition
BYD keeps getting stronger and beats its own record again with 61,014 registrations (+ 334% YoY!) In August. He was able to beat Tesla for the second time in a row in the monthly race. As the Shenzhen automaker’s seemingly never-ending record series continues, Tesla could even fight for the title in the third quarter.
# 3 SGMW also set a record in August, largely due to the strong performance of the Wuling Mini EV, which contributed to a strong result from parent company SAIC (# 5 with 21,766 registrations). That made Shanghai Auto one of the winners of the month.
Toyota impressed with 9,748 registrations (+ 191% YoY) in August, largely thanks to the RAV4 PHEV. But the biggest surprises were Li Xiang in # 17 with a record 9,433 registrations and # 18 Jeep – thanks to the success of the Wrangler PHEV, it has become Stellantis’ next big thing. Will the upcoming Grand Cherokee PHEV help cement a top 20 position and best-selling Stellantis brand status?
Also worth mentioning is the fact that XPeng made it into the top 20. Renault was only # 19 … and Nissan was nowhere to be found.
In the YTD table, a rising BYD has distanced itself from Volkswagen to fourth place and is now approaching the silver medalist SGMW, who is only 8,000 units ahead. Expect BYD to top it next month.
Hyundai had reasons to smile, with the Korean automaker taking advantage of Renault’s slow month to climb to # 11, while # 13 Toyota is now less than 700 units behind the French automaker. Therefore, there could be further changes of position here in September.
The rest of the position change came from Great Wall, now at # 15, thanks to a strong performance by his little Black Cat.
Elsewhere, # 19 Changan is around 600 units behind # 18 NIO, with the startup brand’s recent performances not meeting expectations (chip shortage?) 20, such as # 21 Li Xiang (48.2K units), # 22 Jeep (48K ) and # 23 XPeng (46.3K).
On the OEM side, Tesla leads with a share of 13%, a decrease of 5% compared to the previous year, followed by SAIC (12%) and the Volkswagen Group (11%).
Before Tesla bulls and Tesla shorters get around each other’s necks on Tesla’s stock, I should point out that while Tesla has lost significant market share – that’s natural and doesn’t mean the manufacturer is going under. As the plugin market matures, it is only natural that the market leaders’ market shares will be eroded and the market will become more balanced.
In fact, of all the top 20 brands in the YTD table, only two have actually gained share year over year, one of which is SGMW because 12 months ago the Wuling mini craze was just beginning, and the other is BYD, that gained a mammoth 1 percent point share from 6% in August 2020 to 7% today.
Most brands have lost their share, some dramatically, in the last 12 months, like Renault, which now has half the share (2%) it had a year ago. Others are just happy to keep their share from last year, like the case of Volkswagen No. 4, Mercedes No. 6, Toyota No. 13, and Ford No. 16.
Will these positions remain the same when the EV transition is fully consolidated? I don’t know, but since the competition is tougher in the New EV Regulation than in the Old ICE Regulation (in addition to EV startups, you also have to consider the rise of Chinese automakers who have become exporter brands) Think about the fate of some OEMs (Honda, Mazda, Jaguar Land Rover, Suzuki etc.) and the future relevance of others (Toyota, Renault-Nissan, General Motors).
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