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We will reach the wall of collapse of society by 2074.
“We will hit the wall of the collapse of society by 2074 …” – is the sharp warning that a Dawlish climate researcher and author sent this week to the Prime Minister and the chief scientist of the government.
Martin Heath, an independent councilor on Dawlish City Council, made the statement after predicting last year that atmospheric CO2 would rise 50 percent in pre-industrial times in May. He points out that this will be achieved by April this year.
Cllr Heath uses the analogy of a car crashing into a wall to describe what he predicts for the effects of global warming.
In his own words, Martin Heath explains:
The United Nations climate committee wants to limit the rise in global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2100. As you can see from this table, we will be 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times by 2047, not by 2100 AD.
We will hit the wall of societal collapse by 2074 and fully reveal that the UN numbers have ignored recent climate change calculations. If this proves to be correct, the world is headed for the collapse of eco and wildlife that humans will not escape!
It should be noted that we are only looking at a few decades, not 70 or 80 years.
(a) Based on the 135 ppm additional since 1830, which corresponds to 1 degree hotter Celsius. We now have 2.5ppm more per year, multiplied by 54 years = 135ppm, which is about 20 degrees extra heating by 2074 AD. Do not allow additional feedback, which could make the situation worse.
The graph (with this article) shows a car’s stopping times as an example of the mathematical certainty that the car will hit the wall because there is not enough distance to safely stop at certain known distances. (see road traffic regulations)
Using the same graphic design, the climate will hit the wall around AD 2074 and possibly earlier with an overheated climate for civilization in a way that looks like livable conditions to our world population. This gives us at least 2 to 3 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial. That is, about 1 to 1.5 degrees hotter than 2020 AD (These temperatures are global averages, not highs and lows). And by AD 2120 it will be 3 to 4 degrees hotter than AD 1840
I want to expand on what I mean by “hitting the wall”. We won’t feel a big bump or the sky would go black, the wall is more like a sticky treacle wall we’re going to walk through, but in the process we will pick up more sticky issues that just stop the wheels of normal life and what’s more habitable Planet would be acceptable to all mammals.
If we think, “Well, we have 54 years to go before the crash, I think I’ll be fine,” then think again. From now on, as we approach it, this wall will get bigger and bigger and its effects will get stronger. We are already under the influence of the wall!
This conclusion is based on my April 2020 modeling, which turned out to be correct, and on monitoring the Co 2 over the past year.
My prediction in April 2020 was that the planet would reach 420 ppm CO2 by May 2021. This has happened now and by April, a month earlier than predicted! This may mean that it is actually speeding up, possibly from the predicted feedback that could bring the wall even closer. And as I said then, that would be 50% more than pre-industrial times; a new landmark threshold from 280 ppm around 1830/1850 AD to 420 ppm CO2 in April 2021 AD.
To emphasize again: In April 2021 we achieved a 50% increase in CO2 compared to pre-industrial times.
It is now possible to say that there is a 95% chance that we will hit the wall around AD 2074, or most of all, what we do. Now the task is to slow down the crash and make it less harmful and not fatal. I could add at this point that it is already becoming deadly for wildlife. We are in a new 6th era of extinction for wildlife that shockingly most people fail to realize.
But make no mistake, we won’t be able to make much of a difference in effect. This is due to the 100 year turnaround of Co2. But not just CO2 problems. (See my April 20th paper on climate change). * *
Just a few reasons not to live as usual: too much additional heating; Food shortages; Droughts in other places; Floods and storms in different places; Loss of wildlife and marine life; Sea level rises; Loss of biodiversity; Tree loss; Pollution; Change in currants and ice. People climbing to get out of countries that now wouldn’t be able to feed anything like today’s population. This will lead to mass exodus and far more pandemics. Finally, the human population is growing by 7.8 billion today and continues to grow, even if it is slower than it was a few decades ago.
Think about it: every person alone produces around 2 to 2.5 pounds of CO2 every day, by breathing alone this equates to around 7,780,000 tons (imp) CO2, and that is growing every day. Plus all the animals that support us, this is a surprise in itself if you didn’t know!
If the wall is closer than the stop time it will = crash!
The only thing we can do now is stop what we are doing and prepare for it. Since people find it difficult to change unless they are forced to, we are unlikely to reduce our activity fast enough to reduce the impact and significantly improve the outcome.
As David Attenborough said in his new book, “We must stop growth and be satisfied with maturity and be happy to survive. By definition, further growth is not possible on a finite planet. ‘
BRAKE NOW
The next statement may sound like the ancient prophets – today we call them SCIENTISTS!
To survive we need to prepare – take THE breaks hard NOW and prepare for the consequences and all that comes with it.
I want to end this article with an anecdote to imagine a true event that really happened:
When the Titanic liner hit the iceberg on April 15, 2012, few people were new to what had happened. A few passengers on the slippery ice deck, the lookout, and soon after the captain. A short time later, the designer of the ship on board was notified. He was busy figuring out if they were going to sink. Shortly thereafter, he announced that the Titanic would be at the bottom of the ocean in two hours. The crew did not believe him at first. Here we are where we are told but we don’t believe. Some didn’t even believe when the ship began to tip over. Humans are more about not wanting to believe than reality.
We’re staring again at that kind of scenario where the action should have happened a long time ago.
* CO2 in the upper atmosphere can last up to 100 years even if we and the planet stop erasing it. Please see my April 20th article for more information.
Contribution by: Matin Heath, climate researcher and author.
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