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- A new report from BloombergNEF (BNEF) estimates that electric cars and other zero-emission vehicles will account for 70 percent of new vehicle sales by 2040, even if no new economic or political initiatives are launched by global governments, up from 4 percent in 2040 2020.
- However, in order to meet the target of net zero emissions by 2050, a target set in the current policies of countries like Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, BNEF estimates it to be political Measures to promote must give further introduction of electric vehicles and other emission-free vehicles, especially in the heavy truck fleet.
- There are already some directives in place promoting the adoption of electric vehicles, but more have to be passed to meet the most aggressive emissions targets.
With all of the news from automakers about new and future electric vehicles, one would think that electric vehicles already make up a large part of the global vehicle fleet. But you’d be wrong Although EV car sales are on the rise – particularly in Europe and China – EVs still account for a small percentage of new car sales and an even smaller percentage of cars on the road. A new report from research firm BloombergNEF (BNEF) predicts things could be very different by 2040 when BNEF says 70 percent of passenger cars could be electric vehicles or other zero-emission vehicles like fuel cell vehicles. But even this huge growth won’t be enough for governments who say they are aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
BNEF’s report counts three million worldwide sales of car electric vehicles in 2020. The report predicts these sales will rise to 14 million by 2025 and account for nearly 70 percent of new car sales worldwide and 90 percent of new car sales in Europe by 2040, too without new investment or incentives from global governments. But some governments, including Canada, the European Union, and the United States, have announced ambitious plans to produce net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. And even with BNEF’s rosy estimates, there would still be internal combustion engine cars on the streets by that date, devouring fossil fuels and spewing out CO2 emissions.
How do you electrify the commercial vehicle fleet?
In order to avoid a smoggy future, according to the BNEF, governments need to kick the hand of the market by subsidizing EV infrastructure, setting stricter limits on carbon dioxide emissions, and implementing regulations for the electrification of commercial truck fleets that have so far been carried out much more slowly than electrify the car segment. The report also suggests restricting vehicle traffic in urban centers.
Electrifying the commercial truck fleet by 2050 could be the most difficult of the proposals in the BNEF report. Daimler, Tesla, and Volvo are among the companies working on delivering Class 8 heavy trucks, but Volvo’s efforts so far have only been good for last mile deliveries, not the long haul that back up the American supply chain and one of the leaders of Tesla’s Semi-Project left the company this week. The Tesla semi project has been postponed several times.
Many of the other strategies suggested by the report are already in place in some parts of the world. Europe and China have set relatively strict emission standards. Cities have taken up vehicle traffic reduction in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic to restrict car access to downtown areas, and some are sticking to their guns even as people return to more normal routines. President Biden is in the middle of a previously unproductive round of negotiations with Congress over his proposed infrastructure bill, which would provide funding to expand the US charging network for electric vehicles. BNEF says expanding the global charging network will be key to the high levels of adoption the report predicts.
It is of course impossible to say whether the forecasts made by BNEF will come true. The study predicts a high level of acceptance of electric vehicles in 20 years. But just over 20 years ago, fears of the Y2K bug were of major international concern, and none of the massive global changes that have occurred since the coronavirus pandemic began in late 2019 was predictable even in late 2019, with the introduction of electric vehicles over the next two decades will likely affect factors that we cannot yet imagine. One thing we know (almost) for sure: whether people choose to buy electric vehicles or not, there will soon be a wide choice.
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