There is a lot of speculation about how many plug-in vehicles (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) will be sold worldwide in 2021. Most Australians are starting to spot these weird Tesla Model 3s on the streets. Since they are rare, they become commonplace in Brisbane.
My neighbor used to count them when he was out, now he doesn’t care anymore – he tells me they’re everywhere when he picks up his son from high school.
Australians are beginning to see that we are at the beginning of something exciting. Sales of electric vehicles here doubled in 2021. Last year we had EV penetration of less than 1%, now it’s approaching 2%. Still tiny, you say – but what about the global picture?
By the end of July, 3 million electric vehicles had been sold worldwide and had a market penetration of 7%. Historically, sales are much higher in the second half of the year – each Q4 sale in the EV world is around 33-35% of the annual total.
So will we see 6 million plug-in vehicles worldwide this year? The math seems to suggest that it could be even more!
From 2010 to 2018, sales of electric vehicles increased by 60% per year. From 1 million vehicles (just because the math is easier) it looks like this in numbers:
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
| 1,000,000 | 1,600,000 | 2,560,000 | 4,096,000 | 6 553 600 | 10 485 760 | 16 777 216 | 26 843 545 | 42 949 672 | 68 719 472 |
When you punch these numbers in Excel, you get this chart.
At this growth rate, most new vehicles will have a plug by 2027.
What actually happened
The world reached 1 million plug-in vehicle sales in 2017 …
2019 was an anomaly caused by the removal of subsidies by the Chinese government for electric vehicles that were not of the appropriate standard (i.e. not suitable for highways). This has resulted in a revitalized Chinese electric vehicle industry ready to export to the world. Please note that COVID has not really affected EV sales.
What happens next?
If you look at the numbers published in Inside EVs and Cleantechnica, we appear to be heading for a record year for EV sales, with numbers that could beat the forecasts above. China is already 15% and Europe 20% of new cars are electric vehicles. Every month seems to herald the launch of a new electric vehicle from China or Europe.
Tesla alone could reach a million electric vehicles shipped this year, and next year Tesla’s GigaBerlin and GigagTexas will have the capacity to produce 2 million cars a year.
There are many smaller markets that are not represented here that add to the total.
All in all, we are nearing the 7 million possibility. Place your bets!
I know this is speculation. I hope a conversation will arise. History and statistics are on the EVS website.
David Waterworth is a researcher and writer, a retired teacher who spends his time looking after his grandchildren and making sure they have a planet to live on. He owns 50 Tesla shares.
